As soon as the temperatures rise and the sun shows up, have the flu, and other common cold pathogen always heavier. But this is also true for the new Coronavirus – saves us in the summer? Experts believe this to be a Problem.
"We know gerne", Susanne Glasmacher, spokeswoman for the Robert Koch Institute said. A "some Effekt" going to give it, the lack of basic immunity of the population, but it is such an advantage for the Virus, it will spread more. A "small Effekt", the was not but significantly, the head of Virology at the Medical University of Hannover, Thomas Schulz. Also, Clemens Wendtner, chief physician of the clinic for infectious diseases at the Munich, clinic Schwabing, expects a slight Slowdown in the summer, but warns: "We must not fall into the Illusion that we will achieve the higher temperatures, the Disappearance of the Virus."
The population is largely non-immune
According to Melanie Brinkmann, a Professor at the Institute for genetics at the Technical University of Braunschweig, and the virologists Prof. Friedemann Weber pour out the Virus can be destroyed on surfaces with direct sunlight due to heat. The UV component of sunlight can damage its genetic material.
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The Problem is that , In principle, to give it the effect of summer although, the pointing of the usual course of the Influenza, of the flu, said Schulz. But the Chance for the new Coronavirus to replicate in a population that was largely immune, is much better. The dose of UV-light, which occurs naturally in the outside, have little influence. Brinkmann and Weber stated, however, that with Sars-CoV-2 related coronaviruses of humans were the most in the Winter on active: "We hope, therefore, that this is also the case for Sars-CoV-2."
Swine flu was in 2009, even in the summer
Due to the lack of immunity against the new Coronavirus, all of the disadvantages of the summer was not sufficient for the Virus to push back, also said RKI spokeswoman for glass-makers. You referred to the swine influenza H1N1, which broke out in April 2009, and many of the flu cases have also been triggered in the summer – and well into the following year.
Schulz can imagine that heat and sun can press to light the so-called reproduction number of the Virus – "but only leicht". This indicates how many people are infected on average by one Infected attached. "Who says that it’s all so bad, all of the cold viruses fell in the summer, I can only say: Dream on!", Schulz stressed.
"We will Covid-19 in the year 2021 tragen"
The Berlin-based virologist Christian Drosten had said in the NDR Podcast, a pandemic Virus will not stops about social distancing, UV-light and heat is very strong, "but quite a bisschen". According to estimates " could;a half Einheit" the reproduction number to be subtracted in the summer.
Whether it will come in the next Winter to a re-increase, depends, according to Brinkmann, the number of Infected in late summer and autumn, but also of Test and therapy, interruption of infection chains and "all of our Verhalten".
You have to, as long as there is no vaccination, with a flare-up of infections from about October to expect, said Wendtner. May be it will be as is currently the Hotspots, but the Virus will spread throughout the country. "We will carry Covid-19 in the year 2021." If all of the can be cancelled for this year, or next year, moved events from the Olympic Games to the Octoberfest to take place, was open. Schulz called anyway: "Distance, Distance, Distance."
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