New stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future?
During the COVID-19-lasts for a pandemic still continuing, it is important to find out how SARS-CoV-2 will exist after the first pandemic stage in the human population and how we in the future can protect.
In the current research work of the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, it was investigated how COVID-19 will develop after the first stage of the pandemic, and how is this our future could affect. The results of the study were published in the English journal “Science”.
What is the impact of human immunity?
The newly implemented model study suggests that the overall incidence of the Virus will depend up to the year 2025 is of decisive importance for the duration of human immunity. Because the human immunity has been adequately researched, are now serological longitudinal studies are urgently needed to determine the extent of the immunity of the population, and to determine whether the immunity decreases and the speed with which this happens, report the researchers.
Social Isolation, up to the year 2022?
On the basis of modeled future virus infection scenarios, the research group suggested that a unique social distancing critical cases to the hospital’s capacity to suppress. The infection can flare up after the abolition of these measures and our hospitals overwhelm, so that the social distancing must be preserved until the year 2022 intermittently maintained, advise the researchers.
Can SARS-CoV-2 to completely eradicate?
The health authorities consider it increasingly unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 behaves similarly to SARS-CoV-1, and that the Virus is eradicated after triggering a short pandemic, due to intense public health measures. Instead, the Transmission could be effected similarly as in the case of a flu pandemic through seasonal circulation. The understanding of the likelihood of this scenario is the key for an effective response to the public health.
Model reviewed length of social distancing measures
The researchers created on the basis of data on the seasonality of known human coronaviruses, and under the assumption of a certain degree of cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2, and other corona viruses, a model of the multi-year interactions. With the help of this model they studied, how long will social distancing measures need to be maintained, to the control of SARS-CoV-2 to maintain. So the potential dynamics of COVID has been said-19 over the next five years.
Decreasing Rate of the virus infection needs to be determined
On the basis of their simulations, the researchers report that the key factor that modulates the virus incidence in the coming years, the Rate at which the virus immunity decreases. This Rate is yet to be determined. Under all simulated scenarios, including one-time and intermittent social distancing, flashed the infections again, if the simulated social distancing measures were lifted.
Before us is an intense outbreak in the Winter?
Social distancing should be loosened in the autumn, when the virus transmissibility, it can cause an intense burst in the Winter, which overlaps with the flu season and the capacity of the exceeds that of hospitals, explains the research group.
New big eruption in the year 2025?
Another modeled scenario shows that there is a resurgence of SARS could occur, CoV-2 in the year 2025. New therapeutics could mitigate the need for strict social distancing, but in the absence of such therapeutics Monitoring and intermittent, would have to be the end of dissociation, possibly up to the year 2022 to maintain, reports the researchers.
Immunity of the population needs to be strengthened
Such measures would, in the hospitals of the time, the capacity of the intensive care to increase. At the same time, the population would have the opportunity to strengthen the immunity. The goal in the modeling of such measures is to determine the probable trajectories of the epidemic among alternative approaches. (as)